IvyArcIvyArc
3

Lairy Mary

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 58

Musselburgh · Global Home Of Outdoor Advertising Nursery · 5f 1y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 5f claimer at Beverley in May and ran well from a good draw in nursery there last month. Pulled too hard over 6f at Redcar last week and in the mix if settling better here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS15/0454 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 5f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS16/0546 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f Goo 1225 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS4/0656 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 5f GF 130 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 60 par24/076OR 606 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 58 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Redcar 23/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 58 · 5f217y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 58 par23/095OR 58projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Redcar54th3rd+1
2026-08-13Beverley62nd2nd0
2026-07-24Thirsk66th6th0
2026-07-08Catterick64th4th0
2026-06-04Wetherby56th5th+1
2026-05-27Beverley61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0427/0524/0723/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/202610th33/10%10%+0.10
04/05/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75
16/05/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
27/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
04/06/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
08/07/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
24/07/20266th11/142%55%+0.12
13/08/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
23/09/20264th18/15%67%+0.61