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2yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 48

Musselburgh · Global Home Of Outdoor Advertising Nursery · 5f 1y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

69%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well backed and much improved faced with softer going when opening account in 6f Hamilton selling nursery on Monday, making all. Could be hard to catch under a penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength94%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f1y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS4/0444 @ Musselburgh 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 5f1y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS29/0442 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f1y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0524 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS30/0546 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 46 · 5f1y Goo 117 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 46 par25/086OR 464 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 45 · 5f7y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 45 par2/094OR 455 @ Hamilton 28/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 48 · 6f6y Sft 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 48 par28/095OR 48projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Hamilton51st0th+1
2026-09-02Hamilton45th3rd+2
2026-08-25Musselburgh66th6th0
2026-05-30Chester47th5th+2
2026-05-21Musselburgh26th1st+4
2026-04-29Musselburgh43rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0430/0528/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20266th33/10%44%+0.44
29/04/20263rd25/10%0%0.00
21/05/20266th66/10%17%+0.17
30/05/20267th80/10%45%+0.45
25/08/20266th8/158%17%-0.41
02/09/20265th150/10%33%+0.33
28/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26