Yorkshire Dream

2yo Gelding · 8-4 · OR 46

Musselburgh · Global Home Of Outdoor Advertising Nursery · 5f 1y

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength80%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C4.2

Today: 6

Class gap: +1.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-02	Newcastle	6	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-13	Beverley	6	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-06-27	York	2	11th	6th	+4	3.8
2026-06-09	Carlisle	3	7th	3rd	+3	6.6
2026-05-25	Redcar	4	5th	3rd	+2	7.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/05/2026	5th	9/1	53%	33%	-0.19
09/06/2026	7th	20/1	0%	14%	+0.14
27/06/2026	11th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
13/08/2026	9th	14/1	26%	11%	-0.15
02/09/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	80%	+0.43