IvyArcIvyArc
6

Aighear

8yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 51

Musselburgh · Join Racing TV Now Handicap · 1m 5f 216y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner (13f/15f) at Ayr last autumn. Took a step back in right direction with fourth of 12 at Hamilton (13f, soft) 4 weeks ago. Player off an unchanged mark given this is her time of year. Engaged 5.13 Ayr Tuesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 45 · 1m5f26y Hvy 127 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 45 par9/106OR 455 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 53 · 2m Sft 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 53 par6 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 54 · 1m7f217y Sft 134 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 54 par5/116OR 545 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 54 · 1m7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 53 · 1m7f Sft 130 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 53 par19/066OR 535 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m5f26y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 52 · 1m5f16y Goo 122 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 52 par16/076OR 525 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m5f16y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 29/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 51 · 1m7f Hvy 129 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 51 par29/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29Ayr61st1st0
2026-09-02Hamilton54th3rd+1
2026-07-16Hamilton65th5th0
2026-07-06Ayr56th5th+1
2026-06-19Ayr64th4th0
2026-05-05Ayr53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/105/0516/0729/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
24/10/20252nd4/179%90%+0.11
05/11/20253rd11/486%75%-0.11
05/05/20263rd11/142%33%-0.09
19/06/20264th15/261%57%-0.03
06/07/20266th8/158%29%-0.29
16/07/20265th17/255%0%-0.55
02/09/20264th11/142%73%+0.31
29/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13