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3

Bollin Neil

10yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 58

Musselburgh · Join Racing TV Now Handicap · 1m 5f 216y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

97%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Prolific Catterick winner who returned from 7 months off with a good second at Ripon (2m) in September. Possibly found the race coming too soon when seventh of 12 in handicap at Chester (2m, soft) 19 days ago. This C&D scorer can't be discounted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Catterick 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 52 · 1m7f189y Sft 132 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 52 par1/106OR 525 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 56 · 1m5f192y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Catterick 28/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m7f189y Sft 139 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 59 par28/106OR 594 @ Catterick 21/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 100 · 3m1f71y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 100 par5 @ Catterick 16/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 100 · 3m1f71y Goo 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/12/2025 · OR 100 par16/125OR 1005 @ Catterick 01/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 99 · 3m1f71y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 99 par4 @ Catterick 21/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 100 · 2m3f66y GS 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/01/2026 · OR 100 par21/014OR 1006 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 59 · 2m Sft 138 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m7f196y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 59 par11/095OR 59projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester57th6th+1
2026-09-01Ripon62nd2nd0
2026-01-21Catterick411th9th+2
2026-01-01Catterick53rd2nd+1
2025-12-16Catterick55th4th+1
2025-11-21Catterick42nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1021/1121/0111/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
18/10/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
28/10/20255th11/486%56%-0.30
21/11/20252nd9/153%83%+0.31
16/12/20255th4/179%64%-0.15
01/01/20263rd10/382%83%+0.01
21/01/202611th10/147%29%-0.19
01/09/20262nd18/15%80%+0.75
11/09/20267th20/10%45%+0.45