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8

Falaise Blanc

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 46

Musselburgh · Join Racing TV Now Handicap · 1m 5f 216y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole win came at Newcastle last August. Largely running with credit this season but a below-form fifth of 14 in handicap back at Newcastle (1¼m) 5 days ago. The sort to bounce back in a headgear change.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 47 · 1m5f26y Sft 135 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 47 par19/066OR 476 @ Hamilton 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 47 · 1m5f16y Goo 143 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 46 · 1m4f104y Gd 129 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 46 par30/066OR 466 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 46 · 1m5f Gd 128 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 46 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 46 par8/086OR 466 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 46 · 1m4f15y Goo 130 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 47 · 1m3f39y Goo 125 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 47 par27/086OR 476 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 47 · 1m3f15y Sft 124 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 46 · 1m2f42y Std 124 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 46 par25/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Newcastle65th5th0
2026-09-02Hamilton64th4th0
2026-08-27Carlisle64th4th0
2026-08-11Hamilton62nd2nd0
2026-08-08Ayr63rd3rd0
2026-07-31Musselburgh67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0631/0727/0825/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/06/20265th9/153%50%-0.03
25/06/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
30/06/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
31/07/20267th15/261%25%-0.36
08/08/20263rd9/153%82%+0.29
11/08/20262nd5/174%86%+0.12
27/08/20264th15/261%63%+0.02
02/09/20264th4/179%57%-0.22
25/09/20265th33/10%69%+0.69