3
Smart Philly
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-27 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-09-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |