3
Alabama Sleeper
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 59
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
76%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |