5
Toque
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 76
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2024 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 09/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 64% | -0.22 |