5
Fuoco
9yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 62
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-10-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2022 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |
| 08/07/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |