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4

Musket Magic

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 66

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength1%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 43 · 6f Fas 119 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 43 par17/01C6OR 43C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 25/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 46 · 6f110y 119 · below its mark25/02/2026 · OR 46 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 47 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 47 par27/03C9OR 47C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 17/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 57 · 1m 118 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 57 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 29/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 65 par29/04C9OR 65C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 71 · 1m 120 · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 71 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 6f110y 120 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 67 par15/06C6OR 67C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 14/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 6f 121 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 65 par14/09C6OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-06-15Presque Isle Downs?5th5th0
2026-05-20Presque Isle Downs?5th5th0
2026-04-29Tampa Bay Downs?3rd6th−3
2026-04-17Tampa Bay Downs?2nd5th−3
2026-03-27Tampa Bay Downs?2nd5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0117/0415/0614/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/202610th40/10%18%+0.18
25/02/20269th5/174%27%-0.46
27/03/20262nd9/153%88%+0.35
17/04/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
29/04/20263rd6/594%71%-0.22
20/05/20265th10/147%0%-0.47
15/06/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
14/09/20262nd9/153%80%+0.27