4
Fadethenoise
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 96
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |