5
Minister For Magic
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 17/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 18/12/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |