Where You Was
11yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |