Casa Juanita

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 79

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	Colonial Downs	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-07-19	Colonial Downs	?	8th	10th	−2	1.0
2026-06-27	Charles Town	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-30	Penn National	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-05-08	Laurel Park	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-03-06	Charles Town	?	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
18/12/2025	4th	2/1	89%	40%	-0.49
17/01/2026	8th	9/1	53%	22%	-0.30
21/02/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18
06/03/2026	5th	11/4	86%	33%	-0.52
08/05/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	83%	+0.10
30/05/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
27/06/2026	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
19/07/2026	8th	3/1	84%	13%	-0.72
22/08/2026	4th	25/1	0%	63%	+0.63