4
Little Lamb Chop
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 77
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |