Rock N Reward

5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 91

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲2

Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: -1.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-19	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-09-09	Presque Isle Downs	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6
2026-08-10	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-07-08	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-06-24	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-06-02	Presque Isle Downs	?	2nd	4th	−2	5.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/09/2025	3rd	5/6	96%	50%	-0.46
08/10/2025	1st	5/4	93%	100%	+0.07
20/05/2026	4th	3/1	84%	50%	-0.34
02/06/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	83%	-0.02
24/06/2026	1st	15/8	90%	100%	+0.10
08/07/2026	1st	11/8	93%	100%	+0.07
10/08/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
09/09/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	83%	+0.01
19/09/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	75%	+0.14