Denali Lightning
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 50
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-03-23 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/01/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 01/03/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 23/03/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 26/04/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 26/02/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |