3
Duck Hunter
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 89
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength97%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |