6
Gun Policy
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 89
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 23/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |