Keen Surge
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 71
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 16/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 10/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |