Lets Get It On

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93

Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-14	Presque Isle Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-08-17	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-05	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-15	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-26	Presque Isle Downs	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2025-10-16	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	-2th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength23%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/08/2025	3rd	10/3	82%	50%	-0.32
08/09/2025	5th	7/2	82%	20%	-0.62
30/09/2025	5th	7/1	63%	50%	-0.13
16/10/2025	1st	7/1	63%	100%	+0.37
26/05/2026	4th	7/1	63%	25%	-0.38
15/07/2026	3rd	8/1	58%	60%	+0.02
05/08/2026	5th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
17/08/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	60%	+0.23
14/09/2026	7th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47