5
Thirteen G's
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 82
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 43% | -0.51 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |