3
Herja
6yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 105
Sligo · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 153y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA105 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA102 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bangor-on-Dee | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | BHA107 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Kelso | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 17/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 95% | +0.79 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |