1
Bowensonfire
6yo Gelding · 11-12
Sligo · Gracie's Bar Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 153y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Cheltenham | 1 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/03/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 06/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |