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5yo Gelding · 11-12

Sligo · Gracie's Bar Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 153y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

86%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart hurdler who posted a career best when winning listed handicap at Punchestown in May by neck from Kopeck De Mee. The pick on hurdles form and a half-brother to 6-time winning chaser A Wave Of The Sea. One to consider despite yard going through a quiet spell over jumps.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Leopardstown 01/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m Sft 1541/0211 @ Cheltenham 14/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 145 · 2m179y GS 156 · below its mark14/03/2025 · OR 145 par1 @ Punchestown 03/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 145 · 2m Yie 154 · below its mark03/05/2025 · OR 145 par3/051OR 1451 @ Roscommon 01/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 97 · 1m4f17y Yie 137 · beat its mark01/07/2025 · OR 97 par1 @ Leopardstown 29/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 148 · 2m Goo 166 · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 148 par29/121OR 1481 @ Leopardstown 01/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 148 · 2m Hvy 166 · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 148 par1 @ Cheltenham 13/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 23 · OR 148 · 2m179y Goo 160 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 148 par13/031OR 1481 @ Fairyhouse 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 146 · 2m Yie 163 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 146 par1 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 146 · 2m4f118y Yie 163 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 146 par2/051OR 146projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-02Punchestown11st1st0
2026-04-04Fairyhouse13rd3rd0
2026-03-13Cheltenham110th10th0
2026-02-01Leopardstown17th7th0
2025-12-29Leopardstown15th5th0
2025-07-01Roscommon110th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/021/0713/032/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/02/20251st85/4089%100%+0.11
14/03/20256th7/282%69%-0.13
03/05/20253rd13/266%82%+0.16
01/07/202510th11/486%10%-0.76
29/12/20255th28/10%43%+0.43
01/02/20267th12/137%67%+0.30
13/03/202610th16/116%59%+0.43
04/04/20263rd11/271%88%+0.17
02/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63