5
Mode Avion
4yo Gelding · 11-2
Sligo · Gracie's Bar Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 153y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA129 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | 1 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA128 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA117 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 28/04/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |