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4

Western Doyen

13yo Gelding · 11-12

Sligo · Gracie's Bar Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 153y

#4

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran maiden hurdler who has clearly had issues and showed nothing on return from a 21-month absence in August. Makes chasing debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA80 @ Bellewstown 25/08/2021 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 80 · 2m212y Gd 154 · below its mark25/08/2021 · OR 80 par25/0880OR 80BHA80 @ Limerick 01/02/2022 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 80 · 2m Sft 159 · below its mark01/02/2022 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Naas 31/03/2022 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR 80 · 2m52y Goo 153 · below its mark31/03/2022 · OR 80 par31/0380OR 80BHA80 @ Limerick 26/05/2022 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 80 · 2m3f Goo 153 · below its mark26/05/2022 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Sligo 10/07/2022 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 80 · 2m3f194y Yie 153 · below its mark10/07/2022 · OR 80 par10/0780OR 80BHA80 @ Limerick 21/07/2022 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 80 · 2m Gd 154 · below its mark21/07/2022 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Ballinrobe 08/08/2022 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 80 · 2m143y Gd 140 · below its mark08/08/2022 · OR 80 par8/0880OR 80BHA80 @ Killarney 20/08/2022 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 80 · 2m4f50y Goo 156 · below its mark20/08/2022 · OR 80 parBHA72 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 72 · 2m109y Goo 141 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 72 par10/0872OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-10BallinrobeBHA7212th12th0
2024-11-05FairyhouseBHA800
2022-08-20KillarneyBHA802nd2nd0
2022-08-08BallinrobeBHA806th6th0
2022-07-21LimerickBHA804th4th0
2022-07-10SligoBHA807th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0826/058/0810/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength25%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20218th20/10%50%+0.50
01/02/20225th50/10%69%+0.69
31/03/202212th40/10%42%+0.42
26/05/20225th16/116%75%+0.59
10/07/20227th14/126%54%+0.28
21/07/20224th14/126%82%+0.56
08/08/20226th16/116%64%+0.48
20/08/20222nd13/266%93%+0.28
10/08/202612th125/10%21%+0.21