3
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7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 110
Sligo · Eddie McAllister Memorial Novice Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 153y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA110 | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA101 | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | BHA94 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | BHA96 | 7th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-12-02 | Clonmel | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 22/11/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 02/12/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |