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6

Midnight Eagle

6yo Mare · 10-4 · OR 96

Sligo · Eddie McAllister Memorial Novice Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 153y

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has improved over hurdles for current yard this season, getting back to winning ways in 2½m handicap at this venue last month. Has had excuses both starts since, up in grade when mid-field at Listowel (2¼m) 10 days ago. Didn't offer much in 2 previous chase starts, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 7.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA92 @ Clonmel 02/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 92 · 1m7f200y Sft 160 · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 92 par2/0492OR 92BHA90 @ Limerick 16/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 90 · 2m50y Sft 160 · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Clonmel 14/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 87 · 2m3f116y Goo 150 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 87 par14/05C8OR 87BHA94 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 94 · 2m2f185y Gd 141 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 94 parBHA92 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 92 · 2m1f Goo 148 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 92 par16/0792OR 92BHA96 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 96 · 2m1f Goo 146 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Sligo 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 96 · 2m4f148y Gd 148 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 96 par19/0896OR 96BHA101 @ Kilbeggan 04/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 101 · 3m200y Goo 155 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 101 parBHA101 @ Listowel 20/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 101 · 2m2f100y Goo 147 · below its mark20/09/2026 · OR 101 par20/09101OR 101projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20ListowelBHA10110th13th−3
2026-09-04KilbegganBHA1019th12th−3
2026-08-19SligoBHA961st4th−2
2026-08-03CorkBHA963rd6th−2
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA922nd4th−2
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA9410th12th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0414/0619/0820/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/202612th25/10%27%+0.27
16/04/202614th22/10%0%0.00
14/05/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78
14/06/202610th11/271%18%-0.53
16/07/20262nd18/15%93%+0.88
03/08/20263rd10/147%80%+0.33
19/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
04/09/20269th17/255%33%-0.22
20/09/202610th16/116%47%+0.31