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5

Phoenix Arizona

7yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 100

Sligo · Eddie McAllister Memorial Novice Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 153y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

61%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Making only second chase start (first for current yard), opened account in handicap at Ballinrobe 19 days ago. Can give another good account now that he's up and running.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Navan 16/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 2m4f Hvy 154 · HIGHER CLASS16/111C8 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 90 · 2m110y Goo 166 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 90 parC0 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f90y Gd 16615/05C?C8 @ Listowel 30/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 90 · 2m100y Goo 166 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Sligo 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 90 · 2m2f Yie 148 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 90 par9/06C8OR 90BHA90 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 90 · 2m1f90y Gd 140 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 90 parBHA93 @ Sligo 06/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 93 · 2m1f193y Gd 162 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 93 par6/0893OR 93BHA94 @ Sligo 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 94 · 2m4f148y Gd 164 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 94 parBHA93 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 93 · 2m1f48y Yie 149 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 93 par11/0993OR 93projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11BallinrobeBHA931st3rd−2
2026-08-19SligoBHA948th10th−2
2026-08-06SligoBHA932nd4th−2
2026-07-12SligoBHA903rd5th−2
2026-06-09Sligo?4th4th0
2026-05-30Listowel?11th12th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1130/056/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/11/20257th200/10%0%0.00
24/04/20266th50/10%62%+0.62
15/05/202613th125/10%8%+0.08
30/05/202611th200/10%38%+0.38
09/06/20264th40/10%67%+0.67
12/07/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
06/08/20262nd4/179%93%+0.14
19/08/20268th7/282%53%-0.28
11/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47