1
Soldante
8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 118
Sligo · Eddie McAllister Memorial Novice Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 153y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA112 | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-08-02 | Galway | BHA113 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA104 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA105 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wexford | BHA105 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tramore | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2024 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 19/01/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.29 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 76% | +0.24 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |