IvyArcIvyArc
8

Zolpharine

8yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 86

Sligo · Eddie McAllister Memorial Novice Handicap Chase · 2m 1f 153y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally off the mark over fences in handicap at Limerick (23f) in May and followed up over hurdles at Tramore. However, has run poorly returned to chasing last 3 starts. Tongue strap refitted back down markedly in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA78 @ Thurles 29/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 78 · 2m4f Hvy 146 · below its mark29/01/2026 · OR 78 par29/0178OR 78BHA83 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 83 · 2m6f170y Hvy 151 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 83 parC8 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 81 · 2m7f122y Sft 140 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 81 par26/03C8OR 81BHA78 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m7f110y Yie 146 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 78 parBHA77 @ Limerick 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 2m6f160y Gd 145 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 77 par21/0577OR 77BHA75 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 75 · 2m5f145y Goo 143 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 75 parBHA89 @ Kilbeggan 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 89 · 3m1f50y Goo 148 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 89 par8/0889OR 89BHA89 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 89 · 3m1f180y Goo 159 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 89 parBHA88 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 88 · 2m7f67y Yie 156 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 88 par11/0988OR 88projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11BallinrobeBHA8814th16th−1
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA8913th15th−1
2026-08-08KilbegganBHA894th6th−1
2026-05-29TramoreBHA751st1st0
2026-05-21LimerickBHA771st1st−0
2026-04-19TramoreBHA785th5th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0119/048/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/01/20267th18/15%60%+0.55
12/03/20265th28/10%73%+0.73
26/03/202611th14/126%23%-0.03
19/04/20265th15/261%56%-0.05
21/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
29/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
08/08/20264th5/287%0%-0.87
21/08/202613th12/137%8%-0.29
11/09/202614th20/10%13%+0.13