8
Affinity Rock
6yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 120
Sligo · Frank O'Beirne Memorial Beginners Chase · 3m 1f 182y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA122 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA124 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Galway | BHA105 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-05-12 | Killarney | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -9.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2024 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 24/02/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 12/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/07/2025 | 14th | 8/1 | 58% | 32% | -0.26 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |