4
Down Around
9yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 110
Sligo · Frank O'Beirne Memorial Beginners Chase · 3m 1f 182y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA102 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA97 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA98 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | BHA100 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Punchestown | BHA102 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 05/07/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |