9
River Tara
8yo Mare · 11-5
Sligo · Frank O'Beirne Memorial Beginners Chase · 3m 1f 182y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Listowel | BHA105 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tramore | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-07-28 | Galway | BHA107 | 0 | ||
| 2025-05-17 | Wexford | BHA108 | 0 | ||
| 2024-07-15 | Downpatrick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2023-09-22 | Listowel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2022 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/04/2023 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 92% | -0.02 |
| 18/06/2023 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/08/2023 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 22/09/2023 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 94% | +0.10 |
| 15/07/2024 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 20/09/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |