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Kalsman

8yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100

Sligo · Brenda Anderson Memorial Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all over hurdles at Down Royal in April. Good efforts when placed at Downpatrick on last 2 starts over fences, 11¾ lengths fourth of 12 to Sea Of Doubt in maiden on latest. Reverts to handicap company off a slightly higher mark and likely again playing for minor honours at best.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA96 @ Downpatrick 30/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 96 · 2m5f185y Goo 168 · below its mark30/03/2025 · OR 96 par30/0396OR 96BHA94 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 94 · 2m5f185y Yie 163 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 94 parBHA93 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 93 · 2m3f170y Goo 155 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 93 par12/0493OR 93BHA99 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 99 · 2m5f180y Goo 167 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 99 parBHA100 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 100 · 2m3f20y Goo 168 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 100 par31/05100OR 100BHA99 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 99 · 2m7f150y Gd 166 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 99 parBHA99 @ Downpatrick 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Gd 168 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 99 par9/0899OR 99BHA97 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 97 · 2m3f100y Gd 165 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 97 parBHA100 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 100 · 2m1f165y Gd 166 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 100 par18/09100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 1st of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DownpatrickBHA1004th4th0
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA972nd2nd0
2026-08-09DownpatrickBHA993rd3rd0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA993rd3rd0
2026-05-31KilbegganBHA10012th12th0
2026-05-08DownpatrickBHA999th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/038/059/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength78%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/20254th20/10%77%+0.77
29/03/20266th22/10%62%+0.62
12/04/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
08/05/20269th4/179%43%-0.36
31/05/202612th18/15%15%+0.10
13/06/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
09/08/20263rd18/15%75%+0.70
31/08/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56
18/09/20264th7/282%73%-0.09