3
Soir De Garde
8yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 130
Sligo · Christy 'Frosty' Callaghan Memorial Chase · 2m 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Galway | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | BHA130 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | BHA130 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Tramore | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2024 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 28/12/2024 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 13/04/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |