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9yo Mare · 10-11 · OR 124

Sligo · Christy 'Frosty' Callaghan Memorial Chase · 2m 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Point/bumper winner. Progressive in handicap hurdles last year and showed she's taken well to fences when second of 9 in 23f Ballinrobe maiden (good) 19 days ago. Seemingly overlooked by Paul Townend but holds leading form claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA97 @ Tramore 16/08/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 97 · 2m80y Goo 157 · below its mark16/08/2024 · OR 97 par16/0897OR 97BHA97 @ Listowel 22/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 97 · 2m2f Goo 156 · below its mark22/09/2024 · OR 97 parBHA102 @ Clonmel 24/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 102 · 2m125y Goo 172 · beat its mark24/10/2024 · OR 102 par24/10102OR 1021 @ Leopardstown 02/02/2025 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 112 · 2m2f Sft 144 · beat its mark02/02/2025 · OR 112 parBHA112 @ Ballinrobe 11/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 112 · 2m5f110y Gd 164 · beat its mark11/04/2025 · OR 112 par11/04112OR 112BHA121 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 121 · 2m6f131y Gd 148 · below its mark26/05/2025 · OR 121 parBHA122 @ Kilbeggan 16/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 122 · 3m100y Goo 154 · beat its mark16/06/2025 · OR 122 par16/06122OR 122C0 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m6f Gd 161C0 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m7f67y Yie 16111/09C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Ballinrobe?2nd2nd0
2026-08-16Tramore?3rd3rd0
2025-06-16KilbegganBHA1221st1st0
2025-05-26BallinrobeBHA1214th4th0
2025-04-11BallinrobeBHA1121st1st0
2025-02-02Leopardstown17th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/082/0216/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/08/20243rd5/696%80%-0.16
22/09/20242nd6/492%93%+0.01
24/10/20241st5/696%100%+0.04
02/02/20257th11/271%67%-0.04
11/04/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
26/05/20254th7/491%80%-0.11
16/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
16/08/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
11/09/20262nd11/893%88%-0.05