3
Western Model
7yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 97
Sligo · Sligo Races Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 182y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | BHA93 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA94 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | BHA97 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA96 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA98 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 5th | 16/5 | 83% | 73% | -0.10 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |