4
Affair To Remember
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 09/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 29/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |