Beat The Buzzer
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-12-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 06/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 09/12/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |