2
Grits N Gravy
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 49
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength81%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-10-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 07/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 12/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |