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9

Lordbetwentothorns

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 65

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 27/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 39 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 39 par27/10C6OR 39C6 @ Mahoning Valley 16/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 39 · 6f 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 39 parC6 @ Mahoning Valley 02/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 45 par2/01C6OR 45C6 @ Mahoning Valley 03/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 48 · 6f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/03/2026 · OR 48 parC9 @ Thistledown 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 53 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 53 par28/04C9OR 53C6 @ Thistledown 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 51 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 51 parC6 @ Thistledown 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 54 par27/07C6OR 54C5 @ Thistledown 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 57 parC8 @ Thistledown 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 5f110y Fas 121 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 62 par9/09C8OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-08-12Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-07-27Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-06-20Thistledown?3rd1st+2
2026-04-28Thistledown?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-03Mahoning Valley?3rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/103/0327/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength83%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20252nd4/179%80%+0.01
16/12/20253rd13/266%71%+0.06
02/01/20267th15/261%14%-0.46
03/03/20263rd5/493%50%-0.43
28/04/20262nd4/596%80%-0.16
20/06/20263rd15/261%82%+0.21
27/07/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/08/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
09/09/20263rd2/189%67%-0.23