3
Mo Mo Lightning
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 57
Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 09/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |