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6

My Baby Bullet

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 47

Thistledown · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 02/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 37 · 5f Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2025 · OR 37 par2/04C6OR 37C9 @ Thistledown 10/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 39 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark10/06/2025 · OR 39 parC5 @ Mountaineer 05/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 43 · 4f110y Fm 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2025 · OR 43 par5/08C5OR 43C9 @ Thistledown 28/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 42 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 42 parC6 @ Thistledown 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 43 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 43 par16/05C6OR 43C9 @ Thistledown 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 43 · 6f 123 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 43 parC9 @ Thistledown 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 44 · 5f110y 123 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 44 par4/08C9OR 44C8 @ Thistledown 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 44 · 6f 123 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 44 parC8 @ Thistledown 09/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 43 · 5f110y Fas 121 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 43 par9/09C8OR 43projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Thistledown?6th6th0
2026-08-20Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-08-04Thistledown?1st2nd−1
2026-06-29Thistledown?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-16Thistledown?7th5th+2
2026-04-28Thistledown?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0428/044/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength20%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20257th25/10%0%0.00
10/06/20254th15/261%0%-0.61
05/08/20259th50/10%0%0.00
28/04/20266th14/126%0%-0.26
16/05/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
29/06/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
04/08/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
20/08/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
09/09/20266th12/137%17%-0.20