6
Color Bearer
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 83
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |