2
Eagle Nest
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 81
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 24/12/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |