5
Hite
7yo Horse · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 90% | +0.03 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |