Mamas Home Cooking
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-09-18 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 14/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 13/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 28/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |